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DPE Website Opinion article on GLOBALIZATION
OTS AS LEVERAGE TO ENGAGE REGIONAL & GLOBAL ACTORS.
Ali Oğuz DİRİÖZ
ORCID, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7110-3849
Google Scholar ID https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=XyNks0cAAAAJ&hl=tr&oi=ao **
Intro:
Until recently, the Turkic Council was a linguistic and cultural group of states. The aim was to further relations among states which spoke Turkic languages.[1] With the formal establishment of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), this council became an international organization. As an international organization, OTS can be a leverage for all its members to further their relations towards one another by establishment of formal cooperation through joint incentives and mechanisms. The OTS can and should be a leverage for member states to engage various regional and global actors.
It is argued in this article that the mission of the OTS should be to specifically engage more actively the other international organizations and groupings. Thus OTS members would be represented in other international forums and summits to which typically e OTS member states are not invited. One of the most prominent missions of the OTS is the development of the region through access to global trade corridors by increasing the capabilities on logistics and attracting investments for the development of related infrastructure projects. As such, it could be a useful vehicle to standardize and formalize relations with Western and European investors as well as investors from the growing Indo-Pacific region, and other international funds and donor agencies. Last but not least, the OTS can be a platform to engage the up and coming global power; namely India as a way to continuously engage Global South cooperation. Global South cooperation would also be important for developing inter-institutional mechanisms between the African Union (AU) and the OTS. Engaging more with other actors such as the African Union (AU), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and more frequently with the world’s most populous country India, would balance Russian, Chinese and Western economic influence in the region. Hedging the influence of Russia and China in the region with India as an economically rapidly growing, up and coming global actor in the vicinity of the OTS would allow multiple economic, scientific and technological cooperation opportunities. Particularly developing alternative opportunities with other actors in the region would increase diversity and reduce vulnerabilities stemmed from over depending on the same major powers. A major actor with which the level of relations and engagement of the OTS is currently below its potential is indeed relations with India. It is necessary to create alternative options across the region to have multiple channels open and to leverage neighborhood interaction opportunities.
The OTS should also consider inviting more regularly non-Turkic but regional ‘neighbors’ other than Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO).[2] Notably, states such as Georgia, India, Finland and Tajikistan can be invited as guests in OTS summits and/or joint summits with Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).[3] Common activities with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the African Union (AU) should also be explored within OTS as they conform with Turkiye’s policies of ‘Asia Anew’ initiative and African opening.
Geopolitical settings of OTS
OTS countries, which have vast territories and low population density, have many important natural resources and are further important in agriculture, irrigation, and renewable energy projects. Making use of such potential requires innovation and new technologies in order to realize needs. Managing scarce resources will be an advantage for trade when dealing with EU regulations because of the Green Deal initiative. Western European nations are home to important companies and technologies in the field of green economy. This can provide invaluable investments and know-how, for optimum use of resources.
On the other hand, as a result of having conventional energy sources, particularly thanks to natural gas fields, the region is a center of attraction for many global investors. Issues such as regional geopolitical balances, resource nationalism and the importance of nearby markets to which it can export, arise for the OTS states as a consequence of being rich in natural resources. After the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the need for resource and market diversification in global energy policies became evident as oil producing Arab states reduced oil production and imposed an embargo. In energy policies, priority is given to efficiency and technology in sectors such as water and agriculture, as well as the use of alternative energy sources.
The gas fields discovered and developed more since the end of the Cold War, over the last 30 years, should not reduce the interest in alternative energy sources. As finite resources, and their adverse consequences for the global climate crisis, fossil fuels may have an uncertain future over the next few decades. Emphasizing how important the private sector and free trade are for Globalization, the revenues from fossil resources also need to be strategically used to deliver other alternatives as well. In that respect, in the long run, scientific cooperation, research and development come into the picture more strategically than perceived in the short term.
Strategic Context of the OTS
As aforementioned, one of OTS aim is to develop new institutional mechanisms and collaborations between member countries and the regional countries. Moreover, due to Finnish’s ties to the Ural-Altaic language family, it should not be surprising that Finland, like Hungary, can be invited to the meetings and summits of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) in the following years as a guest, or even as an observer country. OTS member states attach importance to economic and commercial cooperation on the route of the New Silk Road. In this context, Finland may have advantages by offering alternatives over the northern routes. For the same reason, it would be advantageous to invite regional states such as India, as well as other organizations to the meetings and summits of the OTS. India would not only be a solution partner for scientific and logistic developments, but also a potential buyer of the raw materials and manufactured goods from OTS states. Notably the EU, World Bank, Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) (Russia is a BSEC member), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), are all important possible partners to leverage political representation at a regional stage but also for attracting investments to the region.
China has often been in the focus as non-OECD economic power in the global economy. Many projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on New Silk Road Trade corridors as mentioned in previous article (DPE website, Dirioz November 2023)[4] tend to not sufficiently underline India as the growing economic power. OTS should further capitalize on such potential, even if it is eventually under less political and more scientific cooperation fields.
In order not to miss the opportunity about rising India and the Indo-Pacific in general, there is the pressing need to increase cooperation in international organizations outside the EU and NATO. India can be invited to meetings of the OTS and BSEC as a guest or observer. When evaluated in terms of world trade, which is increasingly shifting to the Asia-Pacific region, the importance and benefits of the New Silk Road and alternative routes (not sticking to a single route) will continue.
India, can also effectively assist OTS states to hedge the other major global powers in their neighborhood, namely Russia and China. Also, Turkic identity has not always had an easy history regarding cultural and linguistic rights, which is why it would be necessary to leverage and counter balance Global Powers such as the United States and the EU, Russia and China, both economically and politically. India is the most populous country in the world as of 2023 and its economic growth rate is one of the fastest in the world. China is important but India’s rate of growth is faster and more promising. India also has important connections in the Global South, but still lacks a ‘Globalization Strategy’ similar to the BRI. During the September 2023 G20 Summit, an India Middle East Europe Corridor (IMEC) was revealed, but did not include Turkiye, and is currently facing uncertain prospects due to the instabilities in Israel and Gaza. India is a rising global powerhouse, and therefore OTS should not miss the opportunity of economic cooperation. For example, major international observers consider that the global economy needs to diversify supply chains from over relying on China, and that would create new opportunities for many emerging markets; including India as increasingly emerging diversification alternative to China.[5] By the same token, India should also not miss the opportunity to hedge the troubled IMEC corridor by developing amicable relations with Turkiye and the OTS (countries of the Middle Corridor). Cooperation should not be limited to supply chain diversifications. India and OTS are relevant for one another as markets and solution partners in the global supply chain. 2024 can have a window of opportunity to push for better India-Turkiye and India-OTS relations.
For India, the OTS needs to be viewed as more than a group of Central Asian countries, but rather a cooperation area spanning from Europe to the heart of the Eurasian land mass. Turkiye, by membership to many institutions, undeniably interlinked with European politics and economics. Turkiye’s level of economic integration with the European Union as well as solidarity with allied NATO countries has few comparisons, in spite of some experienced disagreements. NATO membership especially is regarded as a solid security alliance which is a shield towards potential threats. In that respect, extension of NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) to the field of logistics can be beneficial to the other states. The application of Sweden and Finland for NATO membership has demonstrated how valuable that organization is still for providing security even for non-NATO member EU states. Therefore Turkiye’s NATO membership also aspires confidence for investors and partners alike.
Another added value of the corporation would be particularly to have more environmental green energy technologies in the region. Recent earthquakes, wildfires as well as floods and extreme weather events have demonstrated how challenging natural disasters and the environmental crisis will be to the population of all nations regardless of national territories. In that respect a lot of cooperation will also be needed to address environment issues and new security challenges that threaten the population across the world. Military capabilities are often providing relief after natural disasters. Overall, the policy recommendation this article would like to make is to stress on 4 points of interest for the OTS.
4 new points of interest for OTS
Overall, as a new international organization, the OTS is formed at an important time of global geopolitical transition and uncertainties. It has the potential to focus further on 4 points of interest to become a beacon of stability for global trade routes, geopolitics and geo-economics. OTS’s mission and vision are already compatible with most of the points below;
- OTS as new Silk Road corridor
The importance of on-land trade routes had been mentioned by numerous leaders of the OTS member states. However, the OTS itself would also be valuable as an institution formally channeling funds for development projects in this area. Eventually, an institutional cooperation such as a free trade area would also require a formal institutional body like the OTS.
- OTS as a zone of Stability
OTS needs to have institutional mechanism to deepen intra-member cooperation to ensure becoming a zone of stability and prosperity in a turbulent world. Realistically its initial aim should be to becoming more like ASEAN as a zone of stability and cooperation.
- OTS as a platform to engage and balance other International Organizations and summits
OTS should serve as a platform to institutionally engage other groupings like BRICS, G8, EU, ASEAN, where the member states are not represented. OTS should include these groups and IOs in its activities, not necessarily as members or observers, but through guest and dialogue partner and various similar mechanisms.
- OTS to develop technological cooperation with global powers, especially with India.
Technology and scientific collaborations such as Space program and future space mining. Russia, the United States, China and India are also the leading countries that have space programs. In terms of affordability, India’s space agency has been recently marked by noticeable success stories. Most recently, the Vikram Lander as part of the Chandrayaan-3 Space program of India, made on 23th August 2023 a historic landing near Moon’s South Pole.[6]
Space technology would be a wonderful opportunity to reach out to India. This may not sound very relevant to those unfamiliar with the OTS, but the Russian space program makes use of the Baikonur Cosmodrome, located near the city of Baikonur Kazakhstan. Turkiye is another OTS state which has a space agency, has domestically produced satellites and also successfully test launched from Turkiye a domestically produced probe rocket.[7]
CONCLUSION
In conclusion Turkiye attaches priority to the OTS. The strategic aim would be to not miss out on opportunities in a new world political and economic order where trade between the West and the eastern states of Eurasia. By the same token, other partners of OTS such as EU, USA, SCO and particularly India, should also genuinely try to achieve much better cooperation in line with the above mention 4 points of interests as priority in their relations towards the region. The last point, would be to hedge the dominance of the trade corridors of the New Silk Road not just by one global power (for the case of the BRI, of China), but to have other options of investors from other actors to reconnect, such as India. This would help the OTS to be used by the member states as both an economic and political vehicle for their development and ability their ability to have influence beyond their immediate vicinity. Cooperation within OTS engaging ASEAN, and AU conform with Turkiye’s policies of ‘Asia Anew’ initiative and African opening. Just as there is an Indias ‘sub-continent’ in Asia, Turkiye’s and OTS’ policy could be to re-connect politically and economically with India as ‘spice connection’ (Baharat Bağlantısı).[8] Thus, the OTS overall needs to be a means to reach stages where member states are typically not included, re-connect with partners with whom relations have been underdeveloped, and therefore together they can become stronger (as per the OTS motto).
[1] Founded in 2009 as the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States (Turkic Council), in 2021 it was formally restructured as the Organization of Turkic States with its Secretariat in Istanbul. www.turkicstates.org
[2] ECO is an observer to the OTS, and as such, regional countries such as Iran and Pakistan may effectively be represented as observers. https://www.turkicstates.org/en/gozlemci-ulkeler/E
[3] The 2022 Samarkand Summit by the SCO was effectively similar to a joint SCO-OTS event as Turkiye was also invited. While major regional actors such as Russia, India and China, which are in the SCO were represented at the head of state level. The role of the various trade routes, and the themes of dialogue and cooperation in an interconnected world have been discussed. President Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan for Anadoly Agency, written opinion published on 12 September 2022: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/opinion-sco-samarkand-summit-dialogue-and-cooperation-in-an-interconnected-world/2682765
[4] The importance of balancing trade routes for Turkiye were mentioned in an earlier opinion article at the Foreign Policy Institute’s website: https://foreignpolicy.org.tr/turkiye-and-balancing-east-west-trade-routes/
[5] Fitch Ratings, Fitch Wire 5 December 2023, “Supply Chain Diversification Is a Major Opportunity for Some Emerging Markets” ; https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/supply-chain-diversification-is-major-opportunity-for-some-emerging-markets-05-12-2023
[6] Geeta Pandey, BBC News, 23 August 2023: Chandrayaan-3: India makes historic landing near Moon’s south pole. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66594520
[7] Roketsan’s probe rocket was successfully launched into space from Turkiye in 2023. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/science-technology/turkiyes-domestic-probe-rocket-tested-successfully/2966677
[8] Pun intended since in Turkish it translates as ‘baharat bağlantısı’ alluding to the name Bahrat, which Prime Minister Modi likes to refer as a name for India.
Aditionaly, the spice route was historicaly existing and was sometimes considered as a Maritime Silk Road according to UNESCO. For more information, please see UNESCO Silk Roads Programme, “What are the Spice Routes?” https://en.unesco.org/silkroad/content/what-are-spice-routes (8.12.2023).