By: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ali Oğuz Diriöz

For: DPE – Foreign Policy Institute, Ankara, Türkiye

16.05.2024.*

Democratic electoral process is indispensable for India’s politics and economy, even if they are expensive. As June 4^th is nearing, India is rapidly approaching the final weeks of its electoral process. Democratic elections often have surprises, and it would be interesting to see whether the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party – BJP (Indian People’s Party) of Prime Minister Modi would once again emerge victorious, or would the performance of the Indian National Congress – INC and the opposition parties exceed expectations; who would get what percentages of the vote and how many seats in parliament remains to be seen. This opinion piece emphasizes the importance for India of having these democratic elections processes rather than projecting likely winners in the outcome. India, with 1441.7 Million (1.44 Billion) Population in 2024 is considered the most populated country in the World; surpassing China’s 1425.2 Million (1.42 Billion).[1] India’s republican constitution as well as its democratic and competitive electoral process makes India the biggest democracy in the world (especially due to its population). With nearly 1 billion eligible voters, India’s election process takes an extended period of time (44 days from 19 April to June 1^st, and Results declared 4 June 2014). The procedures of the General election are in several phases, rather complex and due to the number of seats with many contenders, are expensive. Costs of the electoral process are estimated to reach over 16 billion U.S. Dollars, likely to surpass the US Presidential Elections of November 2024.[2] However, this process is indispensable for India, not only for its domestic politics, but more importantly for regional and global politics. Hence, in spite of the high costs of the elections, long term advantages outweigh the costs. Here are three main reasons why;

1. India’s complex and diverse composure requires democratic and diverse representation.
2. India’s democratic system, in spite of imperfections, makes it an attractive economic partner for foreign investors and other regional countries (especially in global south).
3. India’s democratic values, also encourage regional and global peace based on the democratic peace theory. (India has good relations with other democracies such as South Africa, France, UK and other countries, not only in places where the heads of state or heads of government are of Indian origin).

Analyzing the aforementioned items one by one would suggest that the process itself, rather than the outcome have far more benefits than the cost to India. One very obvious reason is the diversity of India as explained below.

1. Diverse Population requires democratic Representation

India is culturally, ethnically, religiously and linguistically very diverse, with many cultural similarities as well as differences. For one, India is home not only to Hinduism, but also home to one of the largest Muslim populations in the world, in addition Buddhism, Sikhism, Christianity and many other religions. Furthermore, within these religious groups, there are many factions, differences in the individual degrees of practicing and different sociological composures. Linguistically also India is diverse, in addition to English and Hindi, Tamil, Gujarati, Punjabi, and many more languages are spoken in various regions. There are also many more ethnic and tribal groups, extended clans and families, having their distinct culture, practices etc. Historically and geographically Southern India can be a contrast to the mountainous North. Thus, in order to ensure stability it is necessary to have various and diverse segments of the population represented within the system. Democratic legislature is accountable to the electorate and try to represent as many and diverse groups and their various interests.

• Democratic Elections are good for the economy

Democracies and political representation in general are better for economic development. Internally, representation produces less volatility as the economic decisions tend to represent the majority of the population and their needs. Institutionalized procedures such as democratic elections solidify the domestic stability, transparency, accountability and predictability within a country and thus reducing potential volatility.[3] Stable, accountable and foreseeable economy also gives confidence to foreign economic partners and foreign direct investments – FDIs. Through democratic institutions and a democratic election process, India benefits to attract many investors and partners for developing trade in 3^rd countries. For example, major Japanese companies such as Kubota and Suzuki Motors are in the process of establishing production bases in India in order to more competitively and efficiently export towards the African market.[4] Numerous ICT firms, such as Microsoft, have important service and research centers in India, especially southern Indian tech hubs such as Bangalore. The Indian Film Industry Bollywood, also requires creative storylines to attract vast audiences from diverse backgrounds not only in India but from around the world.  Open process keeps diaspora and inter-societal connections. India’s democratic electoral process actively keeps the Indian diaspora engaged and interested in the domestic developments in India, which also strengthen commercial and inter-societal ties. The connections and relations not just between governments but amongst societies raises the sense of confidence amongst the publics, investors and consumers in similar democratic societies as further explained below.

• Democratic Peace Theory

In spite of the imperfections, institutional resemblances and inter-societal connections deepen the level of exchanges, trade, and connectivity at many levels of society in democratic societies. The democratic peace theory, which has its origins from Kant’s Perpetual Peace, suggests that the various levels of relations and the democratic constraints to institutions make democracies more peaceful towards other democracies.[5] For similar checks and balances through accountability and transparency of democratic regimes, democracies tend to be less willing to engage in war in general (but this doesn’t meant they would not ever wage war against non-democracies). India, as a democratic state, having special connections with many other countries, organizations and companies with Indian origin heads of states, heads of governments, top government officials, International Organizations (IO’s) leaders and company executives and CEO’s. Hence India’s soft power (non-military power through economic, political and cultural influence) is considerable. Also due to Gandhi’s peaceful policies, India is also a leader in the Global South. Even though having close relations with Israel, India’s UN Permanent Representative re-iterated in May 2024 that India supports a two-state solution where the Palestinian people can live freely.[6] Hence, India’s political system is key to its foreign relations as well. In addition to the East African coast, India also contributes to regional stability and security of the Indian Ocean, in cooperation with neighboring countries such as Bangladesh, island countries such as Sri-Lanka, Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius, ASEAN countries such as, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and many other countries in the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific regions.

Concluding Remarks

The above points have clearly demonstrated why, in the long run, despite billions of dollars of cost, elections are providing several political and economic advantages that can be deemed as indispensable for India. In addition, from an economic perspective, India has certain advantages which China does not present, and India is increasingly trying to position itself as an alternative production and economic base to China on many fronts. One of the main things is providing alternative to the East-West trade routes. In that sense, at the September 2023 G20 Summit in New Delhi, India had announced the India – Middle East – Europe Corridor – ‘IMEC’ corridor. IMEC ‘bypasses’ Turkiye, and the current situation in the Red Sea, as well as in Ukraine and Gazza suggest that it would be economically unviable to circumvent Turkiye. No existing road and railway investments can easily replace the Red Sea Route and the Strait of Hormuz in a short time. Therefore, from Turkiye’s perspective, despite the fact that IMEC project excludes Turkey, the Turkish approach is not a reciprocity approach towards India; on the contrary, the continuation of Iraqi Development Road will put forward Mumbai (formerly known as Bombay) as the destination port. India being a democratic nation with a significant Muslim population is an important factor for Turkiye to remain willing to cooperate, of course India’s growing economy being probably the main driver. Moreover, it is in the interest of both Turkey and India for regional and global trade and supply chains to function smoothly, and avoid disruptions similar to Ever Given ship partially blocking the Suez Canal in 2021. Cooperation on the security of existing routes is in the common interest of rapidly growing countries such as Turkiye, Indonesia and India, which are integrated with the world economy. The Development Road of Turkiye seems to be directed first to India’s Mumbai port, then to Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, after the Gulf countries. Geo-Strategically, the ‘Development Road’ project to be opened to the Persian Gulf is also ultimately connected to the Strait of Hormuz in maritime transportation, and it is of strategic importance to have smooth passages through this bottleneck in terms of extending trade to the Asia-Pacific region and continuous East-West trade. Turkiye’s trade volume with the Gulf Cooperation Countries – GCC is rapidly growing and has already reached 30 billion dollars level. Likewise, India’s trade with the same region is also rapidly growing.[7]

Countries in the Global South, such as Indonesia and India, which are important G20 countries with large populations and democratic electoral procedures in the region, will have positive effects on the security of the Indo-Pacific region. In order to prevent trade from being interrupted, it is essential to ensure the security with a democratic partner country with joint interest in maintaining trade. Hence, India’s political system is a cornerstone of its foreign policy, allowing India to expand regional and global cooperation and contributes to stability and security of the Indian Ocean and beyond.

* Article written and submitted before the 19.05.2024 helicopter crash of Iranian President Reisi.

[1] World Population Dashboard of the United Nations Population Fund – UNFPA ; Accessed 16 May. 2024 https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population-dashboard

[2] The Economist Explains, 11 May 2024; “Why India’s election is the most expensive in the World: It is not just because of its size.” Accessed 16 May. 2024 https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2024/05/11/why-indias-election-is-the-most-expensive-in-the-world

[3] Rodrik, D. (1997). Democracy and economic performance. Harvard University, December, 14(1999), 707-38. http://homepage.ntu.edu.tw/~kslin/macro2009/Rodrik_1997.pdf  (Paper prepared for a conference on democratization and economic reform in South Africa, Cape Town, January 16-19, 1998.).

[4] Nikkei Asia (2024). Kubota’s path to global expansion goes through India. Accessed 16 May 2024:  https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Kubota-s-path-to-global-expansion-goes-through-India

[5] Gartzke, E. (1998). Kant we all just get along? Opportunity, willingness, and the origins of the democratic peace. American Journal of Political Science, 1-27.

[6] The Print. 2 May 2024. “India at UN reiterates support for Two-State solution where Palestinian people can live freely” Accessed 16 May 2024: https://theprint.in/world/india-at-un-reiterates-support-for-two-state-solution-where-palestinian-people-can-live-freely/2066086/

[7] Lastly.com India-UAE Trade Has Surged by 16 Pc, Will Continue to Grow Further, Says Ambassador Alshaali. Accessed 16 May. 2024  https://www.latestly.com/agency-news/world-news-india-uae-trade-has-surged-by-16-pc-will-continue-to-grow-further-says-ambassador-alshaali-5934268.html

Another implication of the rapid economic relations is that recently, even a Hindu Temple was established in the UAE, which is unprecedented. Devdiscourse.com , Accessed 16 May 2024 https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/2923575-miracle-acharya-krishnam-hails-first-hindu-temple-of-uae-praises-pm-modi-for-taking-india-story-to-world