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Israel – Gaza Conflict:
A Short Glimpse to Actors and Foresight on Future Possible Implications
Cem BUCAK and Hasan YÜKSELEN, 3 November 2023
Possible Motivations and Objectives:
Eliminating/distinctly weakening Hamas and rescuing the hostages,
Restoring the prestige and the deterrence of the Israeli security agencies,
Expanding military control over Palestine by encroachment on to the Gaza,
Thinning out the civilian population (starting with the northern part of the city) and establishing further foothold in order to facilitate future military operations in the Gaza aimed to bring Gaza completely under Israeli control in order to claim the entire Palestinian exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the Mediterranean Sea.
Regaining internal political support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose political career has recently come under discussion in the Knesset and among the Israeli public.
Wearing down Israel and breaking its will and determination to fully occupy Palestine,
Degrading Israel to gain the support of Palestinian public and anti-Israel entities/administrations/countries,
Posturing and elevating itself as the major/sole representative of Palestinians,
Using hostages of Israeli and European citizens as leverage against Israel and Western governments,
Possible Implications of Conflict:
It is highly likely that over time it will cause a rift/tension between the people of the predominantly Muslim region (Middle East-North Africa) and their own government/regime due to the almost certain disappointment and frustration emerged among the Muslim public regarding the continuing Israeli attacks to Gaza,
It is unlikely that this situation will directly lead to a change of government/regime in the countries in question, in the short-medium term, however it will force the current administrations to seek and strive harder to remain in power,
Both popular discontent in the region and the desire of regional powers to preserve their power will almost certainly provide the exploitable environment for (non- Western) powers seeking to develop/acquire military and commercial influence in the region,
The already observed dissatisfaction among the Sunni population of the region and the feeling that the Palestinians have been left helpless and alone will likely allow Iran to expand influence in the region (as seen with Hamas) example,
Possible fueling of radicalization in Muslim societies, which could eventually feed anti- Western movements and ideologies that will create perennial insecurity for existing secessions in the region,
The integration of Muslim citizens/immigrants living in Western countries will possibly be hampered and their cohesion in the destination countries will be disrupted pressuring both the respective society and governments,
Likely will cause additional refugee influx to neighboring and even possibly non- neighbor Muslim countries adding fuel to both anti-western sentiments and opposition to the respective regional governments due to highly likely deterioration of the daily lives in the host countries,
Hamas, despite its unprecedented attack against civilians, highly likely will gain a more dominant representation and voice than the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) among large segment of the Palestinian population and possibly in international public opinion.