Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ali Oğuz Diriöz

TOBB University of Economics and Technology

The approaching G20 Summit in India in September 2023 will be an important forum to address several pressing issues in the world, ranging from the environment, artificial intelligence (AI) to new regime envisaged by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on crypto currencies, and also in geopolitics and geo-economics. The war in Ukraine and the Wagner episode in Russia will particularly have created significant uncertainties in Eurasian trade, regional energy and global food issues.[1] This will also be the first meeting in which the host country, India, for the first time, would be the most populated country in the world, ahead of China as of the month of April of the year 2023.[2] Therefore, this article particularly will assess the under-rated potential of bilateral relations between Turkiye and India, in light of these global challenges.

The 18^th Summit of the Group of 20 (G20), will be in New Delhi, India on 9-10 September 2023.[3] The G20 consists of the 5 Permanent member states of the United Nations Security Council (United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom), 14 other leading global economies including  Brazil, India, South Africa, Germany, Italy and Turkiye, and the European Union as a regional organization. Typically some nations such as Spain are permanent invited guests. This is a tradition of Multilateralism, International Summits and Congress Diplomacy dating from the days of the Westphalia Peace in the 17^th Century and the Congress of Vienna in the 19^th Century. Major global actors use such multilateral platforms mainly as a consultative mechanism, in which sometimes global challenges are addressed. Climate Change, comes to mind as a major common global challenge to be addressed by all of G20, regardless of their various and differing political positions in many issues.

One of the relatively underexplored bilateral relations in context of the approaching G20, are the Turkiye-India relations. India, which has traditionally been an important voice in the anti-colonial movements and the Global South, has had a balancing policy between several actors. For instance, India is involved in several groups of states such as the United States through the Quad grouping (as accentuated with the recent visit by Prime Minister Modi in June 2023) on one hand, and on the other hand with non-OECD states such as Russia and China through the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) groupings. India is also part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), while Turkiye is part of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).

India, has a comparatively peaceful reputation in light of global politics and particularly regarding the Global South. One main reason is that the Union of India became independent from British colonial rule in 1947, and has been a prominent anti-imperialist actor leading the 3^rd world through the Cold War, and the Global South then on.[4] Turkiye, also had in many respect a record as a trusted-actor in regional politics. For instance, in the Iran-Iraq war throughout the 1980’s, Turkiye traded with both Iran and Iraq. Turkiye remains one of the rare actors able to meet with both Russia and Ukraine today.[5] Both the president of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia came to the 3^rd presidential inauguration ceremony of Erdogan in 2023.[6] The Republic of Turkiye continues to play important roles between East and West and aims to become a logistics base for global trade. Turkiye aspires to bridge cooperation and friendship ties across the region, including democratic values. Turkiye, as well as many in the G20 meet in part to promote effective governance in the new world order, and thereby furthering economic cooperation and trade to foster ties. Nearly 18 months of intense Russia-Ukraine conflict suggests how a non-adventurous and rational foreign policy without compromising sovereignty is an important legacy from Atatürk for the Turkish Republic, which is also compatible with the tradition of peaceful principle of Gandhi and India. Among other things, the Wagner episode Russia experienced recently, suggests how mercenary groups could become a double edged sword turning against oneself. Cooperation does not mean the friendly countries would not have differing interests and opinions. Nonetheless, advancing peaceful cooperation without being stuck with differences is essential to promote regional and global stability.

Hence, the G20 would be a wonderful opportunity for exploring the possibilities of prioritizing positive cooperation agendas in the bilateral Turkiye-India relations as well. New cooperation opportunities are expected to initially focus on socio-cultural and economic aspects. Developing bilateral relations with overlapping regional economic interests, in line with economic development on the one hand and shared global goals and values on the other, suggest that the relations are promising for future enhanced cooperation opportunities. In this context, it is worth also remembering the global influence India has through many senior executives in top corporations, organizations as well as governments. For instance, the new World Bank President Banga is a US citizen of Indian origin. The Indian Diaspora has a wide network across the world and especially in Asia, as well as in Britain and the United States. Politicians of Indian origin in the world, most notably British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US Vice President Kamala Harris, will be of great importance indirectly when the relations with India would be developed (Indirectly because Banga, Harris and Sunak are citizens of the United States and United Kingdom). India’s fast-growing population will be presenting challenges as well as numerous opportunities on a new world geo-economics. Within the framework of shared values for promoting regional trade and economic cooperation in an atmosphere of regional and global stability, possibilities of common regional and global peaceful policies should be developed, especially on overlapping issues.

In this context, the importance of maintaining relations on the basis of rational, reasonable, balanced and principles that spread stability is also important for the rapidly developing inter-organizational cooperation such as more joint meetings between the SCO and OTS. Shared values between Turkiye and India, such as democracy and human rights are needed to preserve the existing ties with Western countries (such as EU and NATO members), but also relevant to set examples to the East. Neither Turkiye’s nor India’s policies towards the West are not and should not be at the expense of their relations with the East. This is a major overlapping and potentially shared objectives between Turkiye and India. Turkiye’s ‘Asia Anew’ initiative along with further prioritization of the Middle Corridor and New Silk Road policies need to develop options that may also potentially include more investments and partnerships with Indian corporations. Cooperation with India would also bring further value to cooperation with the Global South. Strengthening ties and cooperation with Eastern countries such as the Central Asian Republics and Mongolia, Japan, South Korea, and other Indo-Pacific Southeast Asian countries will also develop cooperation on similar sets of values and principles with India, the biggest democracy in the world and now the most populous country in the world.

[1] Temizer, M. Anadolu Agency (25.06.2023), “Latvia warns of ‘unpredictable developments’ in region after latest events in Russia Considering recent developments in Russia, we remain vigilant, says Foreign Ministry spokesperson.” ANADOLU NEWS AGENCY WEBSITE: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/latvia-warns-of-unpredictable-developments-in-region-after-latest-events-in-russia/2931023 (Accessed: 26.06.2023)

[2] UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (24 April, 2023): UN DESA Policy Brief No. 153: India overtakes China as the world’s most populous country: https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/PB153.pdf (Accessed: 26.06.2023)

[3] G20 Leaders’ Summit (2023): https://www.g20.org/en/g20-india-2023/new-delhi-summit/ (Accessed: 26.06.2023)

[4] Stuenkel, O. (2019). India-Brazil-South Africa dialogue forum (IBSA): the rise of the global South. Routledge.

[5] Dirioz, A.O. (2022). “As Russia-Ukraine Conflict Drags On, Can Türkiye Develop into a New Global Supply Chain and Logistics Center?” Avrasya Dünyası – Eurasian World 2022/10: 11 , Pp 29-34. Publisher

Terazi Yayıncılık / AVİM   |  https://avim.org.tr/tr/Dergi/Avrasya-Dunyasi-Eurasian-World-1/11

[6] Euronews (03.06.2023) “Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan yemin ederek görevine başladı” Euronews : https://tr.euronews.com/2023/06/03/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-yemin-ederek-gorevine-basliyor (Accessed: 26.06.2023)