October 7 Earthquake Opens Different Fronts in the Middle East.

Associate Professor Dr. Orhan Karaoğlu- International Relations Specialist

Today, the Middle East is in a process of multiple (Polycrisis) and permanent crisis (Permacrisis). Geopolitical developments and political, social and economic crises in the regional arena are not going uninterrupted.

In the year and a half since the start of the Israel-Hamas war on October 7, 2023, conflicts in the Middle East have become entirely regional. First in Lebanon and then in Syria, important geopolitical developments have taken place that will affect global-regional politics.

Before October 7, 2023, there were efforts to establish a new geopolitical order in the Middle East. Washington had reached a tacit agreement with Tehran on its nuclear program, according to which Iran effectively halted its nuclear program in exchange for limited financial relief.

The US had announced plans for an ambitious trade corridor linking India to Europe via the Middle East to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the region. The Israeli government, on the other hand, was busy expanding settlements in the West Bank, which naturally provoked Palestinian anger.

It did not make meaningful concessions to the Palestinians, but normalized relations with the Arab states and Türkiye. The Ibrahim Accords signaled a political move away from the old paradigms. The temporary rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran signaled a de-escalation in the region’s most heated rivalry.

The fact that this rapprochement was partly mediated by China underscored another reality: While the US was clearly trying to extricate itself from the crises and conflicts in the region, other powers in an increasingly “multipolar” world were forging their own paths. Türkiye designed to repair its damaged relations with regional states, including Israel, through mutual will. Diplomatic relations returned to normal after more than 10 years. In short, a different Middle East was being planned. In the year since the Israel-Hamas war began on October 7, 2023, the Middle East has once again been on the brink of all-out war.

But right now, the Middle East is again in geopolitical turmoil. The crises are intertwined. After the October 7, 2023 war between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah suffered a heavy blow in Lebanon. In this 15-month period, both Israel and Hamas seem to have worn out. Israel has lost a lot of credibility in the international community, while Hamas has been weakened militarily. Although an agreement seems to have been reached before the Trump administration came in, for now there is an announced ceasefire that is as volatile and fragile as sand in the desert. In Tel Aviv, government hawks want the war to continue. However, after October 7, new fronts seem to have opened in the Middle East.

Tel Aviv saw the October 7 process as an opportunity to thwart Iran and its nuclear program. It focused on weakening Iranian-backed Shiite militias in the countries where they are based. Tel Aviv also wants to take advantage of the economic situation in Iran. It believes that the Revolutionary Guards are also experiencing increased internal rivalries and tensions, which creates opportunities for a possible operation against Iran. Netenyahu is counting on the possible support of Donald Trump, but it is not certain that the next US President will authorize an act of war, even if he is determined to keep Tehran under control. Much will depend on contacts, side events and Iranian moves. In Iran, the Revolutionary Guards are conducting drills, stockpiling missiles, demonstrating weapons and using threatening tones. President Masoud Pezeshkian is playing the diplomacy card.

For Iran, the risk of conflict with Israel continues to exist, with long-range systems “on the ramps”, although both sides prefer to duel in covert operations and in secret. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are following developments: A troubled Iran gives them an advantage, but on the other hand, the Gulf states do not want further crises in the region.
There have been a few raids in Lebanon that have broken the ceasefire with Hezbollah, but it is being respected. It is likely to take time for the pro-Iranian movement to recover from the blow it suffered in the summer when its leaders were killed. In addition, the fall of Assad has deprived Hezbollah of a crucial logistical corridor.
Syria is perhaps the country that has suffered the most damage from the October 7 earthquake. Syria is struggling to recover after Assad’s ouster. But Syria is the most uncertain scene in this process. Israel, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are seen as the winning actors in this process. However, these countries are also trying to expand their influence in Syria.
During October 7, another front opened in Yemen. The Houthis entered the conflict in defense of the Palestinians and affected trade traffic in the Red Sea. They carried out actions against Israel, such as missile/drone launches and ambushes on ships. Israel responded with bombardments from a distance of two thousand kilometers: Their retaliatory actions can be seen as an indirect exercise of what they can do against Iran. The Yemeni Houthis are willing to stop now, but they seem ready to resume attacks if the ceasefire is violated.
In 2025, important developments may also take place in the region. Multiple and permanent crises are likely to continue. The process that started on October 7, 2023 may evolve into another dimension with the impact of global geopolitical developments.