Ali Oğuz Diriöz, August 2024

Signs of Neo-Medievalism are real; but not an inevitable fate

 Soldiers using a catapult/trebuchet resembling devices throwing fire across the border to Lebanon, plagues and pandemics such as Covid-19, causing shut-downs and closing borders are reminders of the Middle Ages. Slowdown in global maritime trade, the global climate crisis is affecting agriculture, causing mass migrations. There are huge disparity in global income distribution and wealth concentrations (1% owning nearly half of global wealth[1]).  Warlords and non-state groups  are destabilizing the global order. Increased sectarianism and religious divide lines across societies seems prevailing rather than forming multiculturalism in a Global Village. These are all signs possibly pointing to a period of neo-medievalism. These are all reminiscent of the fall of the Roman Empire.

Neo-medievalism characteristic conditions has been described in a Rand Corporation report entitled “U.S.-China Rivalry in a Neomedieval World”, published in 2023, by Heath, Kong and Dale-Huang, defined neo-medieval era as;

“… a historical period, beginning around 2000, characterized by weakening states, fragmenting societies, imbalanced economies, pervasive threats, and the informalization of warfare.”[2]

The characteristic conditions of neo-medievalism were the following[3]:

• Politically, the centralized nation-state is in steep decline, spurring severe political crises in many countries.

• Economically, growth has slowed and become imbalanced, leading to the return of entrenched inequalities and expansion of illicit economies.

• Non-state threats, including pandemics, banditry, and ecological and natural disasters, could outpace rival militaries as security concerns.

• Pre-industrial aspects of warfare have reemerged, including the prevalence of siege warfare, irregular and protracted conflict, the privatization of warfare, and the prominence of intrastate conflict.

Indeed, these characteristics are evident, also as conditions for a de-coupling from Globalization, i.e. de-Globalization. Still, neo-medievalism is not an inevitable fate,  if global governance can organize multilateral responses and sustain global cooperation. Yet  “the Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones,” as said by late Saudi Petroleum Minister Zaki Yamani[4]. Thus it can be evitable by better governance and technology. Yet technology itself may not be a sufficient to prevent neo-medievalism. Technology without governance would only empower the few who may have better access to it (new challenges concerning Artificial Intelligence – AI, as well as Crypto Currencies and Crypto–Mining further make governance difficult). Armies and knights in the middle ages were technologically more advanced than Roman legions. The Gothic Cathedrals were impressive and magnificent. Roman Cathedrals, reached their apogee with the Hagia Sophia Basilica; now Ayasofya mosque, mostly built in  the early middle ages 6^th century.

Thus, it is not a matter of technology alone, modern society is more about equal and equitable distribution of rights and power. However wealth, power and knowledge are becoming less  equitable in recent decades.  Globalization also rests on the  mobility of goods. The mobility of trade goods, raw materials, mobility of citizens, people and ideas as well as a form of governance.

The Roman Empire wasn’t an ideal system. War prisoners fought to death in gladiator arenas. Slavery was common, corruption and political rivalries with constant rebellions were also common. However ancient Rome had a period of Pax Romana with established networks of roads across the empire; hence the saying, ‘all roads lead to Rome.’ Roman citizens had rights, privileges, a legal system and courts. Rome, even under the empire, had a senate as a representation in the government system (SPQR – Senatus Populusque Romanus / The Senate and People of Rome). Roman citizens had rights, unlike  medieval serfs. Comparing citizens and serfs would be more appropriate to understand the societal inequality, illiteracy and backwardness of the dark ages than comparing roman nobility’s armed forces and the technology to those of a feudal lord.  

The Roman Empire established several centuries of order, peace, stability. When Emperor Constantine converted to Christianity and re-unified the Eastern and Western Roman Empires, Rome was at the zenith of its power at the first council of Nicaea in 325 AD. The unified Roman Empire’s power was formidable until the death of Emperor Constantine in 337 AD. Until the migration of Germanic tribes  late 4^th century, both the Western and Eastern Roman Empires were formidable powers.[5] Yet in 5^th century, the city of Rome was besieged, sacked and before the end of the century, Western Rome was no more (476 AD). The Byzantine / Eastern Roman Empire lasted until 1453, as medieval empire with increasingly feudal system.

In the middle ages, power was no longer under central imperial governments but at the hand of local rulers. Although Rome was also an oligarchy with power struggles among powerful families, the government system and the legal system was a central governance system. Even though in 800 AD, at the turn of the 9^th century, contemporaries; Frank Emperor Charlemagne and Abbasid Caliph Harun Al Rashid ruled empires, authority over vast territories fragmented eventually after these rulers.[6]

Dogmatic and conservative interference to governance established a system of religious  restrictive mindset. This was slowly overcome after geographic explorations from Europe, the Renaissance, the Reformation and the Enlightenment, followed by the American, French and Industrial Revolutions. It took over a thousand years until the Renaissance, The Reformation, the Peace of Westphalia, or the Enlightenment periods for the national sovereignty to be reestablished. Gunpowder eventually rendered the castles and fortified strongholds of the feudal land-lords obsolete, yet again the medieval fortresses were more advanced and fortified than Roman ones in the first place.

The Historic Silk Road and Spice routes functioned well through the Middle Ages. Eurasian land-trade functioned at its apogee until the age of European explorations and transatlantic trade. Diriöz & Doğru  (2024) explain the importance of Maritime Trade for the global economy.[7] Historic land trade routes across the Eurasian landmass, were a web of caravans and caravanserais. Silk, spices and many goods were traded over through extensive network of supply chains ran by caravans across relays. Trade routes from China and India, through Inner Asia, Persia and the Middle East  went on towards Europe and North Africa (UNESCO,2024).[8] During the Middle Ages, one of the periods of the golden age of the Silk Road was the Timurid Renaissance in the 14^th century. However, the Silk-Road did not create a standards and rules based interdependence and peaceful relationships to promote global trade, establishing mechanisms of governance, peace and prosperity.

Maritime trade is still over 90% of the global trade, and is under severe pressure. Crossing the oceans and sustained supply chains through overseas trade has since been key in establishing a global economy. Thus the beginning of overseas trade across the globe is considered the beginning of globalization.[9] Globalization has its own problems as well and is not an ideal system. However, after many years and many mistakes an international multilateral system of global governance setting some rules to the global economy has been established. Although imperfect and weak, we need global governance and cooperation among sovereign nation-states to tackle the global challenges such as the climate crisis, natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes, as well as migration due to disasters and conflict.

Infrastructure such as maritime ports, airports, bridges, roads, and railroads play important roles in attracting voters during elections. Grand projects feature during electoral campaigns. Infrastructure projects, require strong centralized governments to build them, because they are funded significantly by levied taxes and government bonds. Infrastructure investments, expand the economy, enhance trade and logistics as well as supply chains, and benefit citizens through public services.[10] In modern sovereign nation-states, local and national governments are in various degrees accountable to citizens. However, as political patronage and neo-medieval feudalism grows, then ruling powers become less accountable to citizens but to the investors funding them. International mega-projects and global trade don’t require a world government but are enabled through a global governance system in the global economy.

In conclusion, while there are clear signs of a new era of neo-medievalism, the trend is not inevitable. Global governance and stronger global citizenship would be one of the possible remedies. Last but not least, strategic nuclear weapons are dreadful and it would be a terrible proliferation scenario if the central governments of the nation-states maintaining nuclear weapons were to disintegrate.

[1] According to Oxfam Report published 14 January 2024, titled, “Inequality Inc.” 43% of global financial assets are on the hands of the top 1% of the wealthiest. In Europe 47%, in Asia 50% of all wealth is in the hands of the richest 1%. Executive Summary page 10. https://www.oxfamamerica.org/explore/research-publications/inequality-inc/

[2] Heath, T. R. Heath, Kong, W., and Dale-Huang, A. (Jun 6, 2023) “U.S.-China Rivalry in a Neomedieval World: Security in an Age of Weakening States.” Rand Corporation, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1887-1.html

[3] Ibid.

[4] According to Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani 1930–2021, Former Minister of Petroleum of Saudi Arabia,

“The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones, and the Oil Age will end, but not for a lack of oil.”

In his speech to OPEC, September 2000, quoted in The Guardian 8 September 2000. https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00017466

[5] The Economist, May 25th 2023. “Rome fell. Will the modern-day West follow suit?” Culture, Review of Book :

“Why Empires Fall.” By John Rapley and Peter Heather. Yale University Press https://www.economist.com/culture/2023/05/25/rome-fell-will-the-modern-day-west-follow-suit

[6] Also the concept of Middle Ages being a Eurocentric idea, and that the rest of the world did not necessarily experience the ‘Dark Ages’ has to be considered for the benefit of the doubt regarding Neomedievalism.

[7] Diriöz, A. O., & Doğru, T. (2024). Maritime Trade Routes Are Necessary for Globalization: The Case of Türkiye. Uluslararası Kriz Ve Siyaset Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(1), 1-12.

[8] UNESCO. (2024, 2^nd of August). Accessed August 2, 2024 https://en.unesco.org/silkroad/about-silk-roads

[9] O’Rourke & Williamson, “When did globalisation begin?” National Bureau of Economic Research – NBER,Working Paper 7632. DOI 10.3386/w7632  https://www.nber.org/papers/w7632      

[10] Bielenberg, A., Williams, J., & Woetzel, J. (2020). Four ways governments can get the most out of their infrastructure projects. McKinsey & Company. January.