Great Power Competition and The Global South

Prof. Dr. Tarık Oğuzlu *

The dynamics of international politics are increasingly becoming reminiscent of the Cold War environment every day. The competition between the Global West, led by the United States of America, and the Global East, led by Russia and China, has accelerated on geopolitical, economic, technological, cultural and ideological grounds. On the other hand, the term Global South, which is used to describe many countries outside these two blocks, has become very popular lately. The global fault lines emerging regarding the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, Taiwan question, green energy transformation, climate change, neoliberal economic order and the future of globalization show that polarization and competition in world politics are accelerating. What exactly does the new world order created by the Global West and Global East countries, which are in competition and conflict with each other, and the Global South countries that do not want to be left in the middle and try to chart their own path in this process, mean?

While there are aspects of these events that are similar to the original Cold War environment, there are undoubtedly other aspects that differ from it. One of the most important differences is that the US and China, which are considered rival poles in today’s world, are in highly interdependent economic relations with each other, unlike the US and the Soviet Union of the past. America’s trade war against China and efforts to reduce dependence on important countries of the Global East, which is becoming more visible within the Global West day by day, aim to reduce risks (derisking) rather than a complete break (decoupling). The cost of a possible economic separation is an important reason that pushes these two blocs to act cautiously.

The second important difference is that neither America nor China is in the bloc leadership position that the US and the Soviet Union used to have in the past. Although the footprints of polarization and fragmentation are now being felt, neither America’s traditional allies nor the countries we consider to be in China’s sphere of influence are happy with this situation. There are many countries in today’s world that resist strict bloc-formation policies. Countries that want the new world order to be polycentric and multipolar are everywhere.

For example, America’s well-to-do traditional allies, including countries such as Germany, France, Japan, and South Korea, know that their economic relationships with China are crucial to their well-being. That’s why they are reluctant to sign on to realistic-exclusionary economic and political policies that the US has begun to follow against China, unless they have to or when push comes to shove. Instead of siding with the US all the time, they do not want to be bad with China and Russia in the new world where America will not be as dominant as before.

Apart from this, there is a new situation in international politics that attracts attention. In today’s multi-centric and multi-actor world, many countries are trying to chart their own ways instead of taking sides, staying in the middle or looking at the world from the perspective of the ideological and geopolitical interests of a dominant actor. The slowdown of globalization and viewing politics from ideological, security and geopolitical perspectives is a nightmare scenario for many countries that put the desire for economic development and strategic autonomy at the very center of their national isterests.

Similar to America’s traditional European and Asian allies, these countries are also trading states and very much concerned that polarization in international politics will disrupt global trade. In today’s world, the Global South is one of the most used concepts for countries with such sensitivities. I think it is very valuable for the preservation of international peace and stability that the number of countries that are considered to be part of the Global South is quite high, that these countries want to trade with as many countries as possible in order to become rich, and that they think that they can protect their national sovereignty and strategic autonomy much more easily in a polycentric world. The competition among great powers to attract these countries to their side makes it possible for these countries to bring their interests and sensitivities to the agenda of international politics and to follow a ‘balance of powers’ policy in their relations with great powers. No great power that loses legitimacy in the eyes of the Global South will have the capacity to form and lead a geopolitical bloc.

So what exactly does Global South mean? First of all, almost all of the countries considered to be in this category belong to the group of low- or middle-income countries. They could not fully complete their economic development and gained their independence as a result of their struggles against European colonial powers in the post-colonization period in the second half of the twentieth century.

Among these countries are the emerging global powers of the non-Western world like China and India, as well as South America’s dominant economic power, Brazil, and its regional rival Argentina.  Such powerful African countries as Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria and the Republic of South Africa are also included in the Global South league. Iran, the ancient power of the Middle East, is here, as are the rich countries of the Gulf, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. So what brings so many different countries together?

The majority of these countries belong to the G77 and Non-Aligned Movement formations, which were established during the Cold War. However, unlike the Cold War, today’s Global South countries do not view the world from a bloc mentality. There used to be more similarity and group consciousness among members of the Third World bloc. This bloc kept its distance from both NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

Today’s Global South countries do not have a bloc mentality. They are just a collection of countries trying individually to achieve their own economic and security interests. When their interests require it, they act in solidarity with each other or cooperate with countries that are not part of the Global South. It is assumed that these countries follow a strategy of multi-alignment or active-neutrality.

These countries, which consider it important to distribute their strategic eggs to different strategic baskets instead of putting them in a single strategic basket, attach importance to establishing sustainable pragmatic cooperations simultaneously with the great powers that are in conflict and competition with each other. The reason behind the Global South countries’ efforts to establish pragmatic relations with all of them, not with a particular global power, is the desire to become more worldly, not to turn away from the world. They are aware of the opportunities offered to them by the liberal world order, which was established after the Second World War and took root with the acceleration of the globalization process, but they want this order to be updated in line with today’s realities and become more representative, instead of serving the hegemony of the Global West.

For example, India is part of the quadrilateral dialogue platform known as the Quad Initiative with the US, Japan and Australia. The main purpose of this platform is to limit China’s regional and global influence under the leadership of the US. But India simultaneously supports initiatives within BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with a view to balancing the global dominance of the West.

An important advantage of the Global South countries is the radical changes in the global balance of power in recent years. Because these changes incredibly increase the bargaining and maneuvering abilities of these countries in international politics. While the share of the developed G7 countries in the world economic pie was around 75 percent in the early 1970s, today this rate has dropped to 40 percent. The share of developing and developing countries in the world economic pie has reached up to 60 percent.

Another feature of the Global South countries is that these countries want to follow their own economic roadmaps. They do not want to position themselves around neither the Washington consensus offered by America and Western countries, nor the Beijing consensus adopted by China and its followers. Most of them want to write their own prescription for development and modernization.

Never before has the peace and stability of our world depended so much on the choices of the countries which we know define as belonging to Global South. Let’s hope that this potential becomes kinetic as soon as possible and our world can breathe easier.

* Prof. Dr. Tarık Oğuzlu Dış Politika Enstitüsü Akademi Kurulu Başkanı ve İstanbul Aydın Üniversitesi Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi Dekanı