Assoc. Prof. Ali Oğuz Diriöz

published at Independent Türkçe 12.02.2026

—Is Peace Possible Between Ukraine and Russia?

February 2026, four years have passed since Ukraine – Russia war began in 2022. I would have preferred to write that Europe’s period under the shadow of war is coming to an end; There is not even a publicly announced framework for a peace plan.

I will attempt to present a draft. I am certain that my proposal has shortcomings, but at least I have outlined a rough framework for a ceasefire agreement.

While still alive, Kissinger argued a balance and security architecture that would terminate hostilities. He suggested that certain territorial and status issues could be addressed at the negotiating table.

2 fundamental realities must be acknowledged.

First, Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are fundamental principles. Türkiye “did not give up on either Ukraine or Russia.” While emphasizing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Turkish officials consistently maintained that Ukraine’s future belong to the Ukrainian people. Furthermore, the security, independence, and aspiration for European integration of the Ukrainian people cannot be ignored. Ukraine needs security guarantees.

Second, it is not realistic to ignore Russia’s security. Russia’s long-standing discomfort and concerns regarding NATO enlargement, its sensitivities about the military balance in the Black Sea, and its concerns about border security are often not even voiced in Western capitals. Yet when discussing one side’s security concerns, the other side’s concerns must also be taken into account.

In my proposal, both Russia and Ukraine should accept demilitarized zones (DMZs).
OSCE would be a suitable institution to monitor whether such areas are indeed demilitarized.

Peace is constructed upon reciprocal security arrangements. Therefore, it is essential to create forward-looking expectations.

Türkiye maintains close relations with both Russia and Ukraine.

In this context, Ukraine’s EU membership could be addressed through a special formula similar to the Cyprus example.

If an accelerated EU membership is designed for Ukraine, Türkiye must also make progress in its EU membership process.

If Türkiye were to become an EU member, as both an EU and NATO member, it would contribute to the preservation of regional peace.

In my understanding, the draft could include the following points:

1. Immediate and permanent ceasefire should declared along the current front lines.
2. Subsequently, both sides should withdraw to a certain extent from these lines, and certain areas designated as demilitarized zones.
3. Ukraine’s non-membership in NATO for the time being (perhaps 10 years or possibly longer) should be considered (as stated by U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth and many academics).
4. Ukraine’s EU membership should be planned under a Cyprus-like status.
5. Türkiye should also become a member of the EU.

Time is passing.
But it is still not too late for peace.