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Up Next; The G20 Summit in Brazil and a discussion of BRICS
By Ali Oğuz Diriöz, 16 November 2024
The next G20 Summit of Heads of States and Heads of Governments will be held 18-19 November in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The G20 consists of the 19 big economies, in addition to the European Union and the African Union. It is a forum for international economic cooperation, and represents around two thirds (2/3) of the World’s Population, 85% of the world’s GDP, over 75% of world trade.[1] The group of countries in the G20 include the following:
- G7 Countries: United States – USA, United Kingdom – UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan
- BRICS : Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
- MIKTA: Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkiye, Australia,
- Others: Saudi Arabia and Argentina,
- 2 International Organizations– IOs: The European Union – EU, and the African Union – AU.
The G20 is a contemporary example of summit diplomacy, where there is a structure but no formal organization or institution, no permanent staff, and a rotational presidency where the host country organizes the summit. The Previous G20 in 2023 was organized in India, the current one in 2024 will be in Brazil, and the next year’s 2025 will be in South Africa.
One of the most important changes to the G20 in 2023 was the inclusion of the African Union. The African Union was only included after the G20 New Delhi Summit in 2023. Until 2023, only the European Union was represented as an IO, in addition to 19 Nation States. In fact, it was one of the successes of the Indian presidency of the G20 Summit in 2023 to successfully include the African Union and have more representation of the Global South. Because of the unanimous decision to include the African Union, the G20 Summit’ 2023 New Delhi Declaration is one of the precious instances where a unanimous declaration was adopted.[2] This was a challenge in a polarized group which includes great powers. The Unanimity of the G20 New Delhi Declaration was considered as one of the greatest diplomatic achievements of India in 2023.[3]
The G20 is a platform where some of the major global issues are discussed. While the joint communiqués and declarations tend to be very general, it is nonetheless an opportunity for heads of states and governments to meet and conduct high level diplomacy. This tradition of congress diplomacy or summit diplomacy goes back to the 1648 Peace of Westphalia. Yet the multilateral peace such as the Peace of Westphalia in the 17th and 18th centuries, had no clear structured continuity in the aftermath. The Congress of Vienna, and the ensuing Concert of Europe, can really be traced as a tradition where the heads of states or governments would meet regularly to discuss the state of the politics in their region (in the case of the Concert of Europe it was Europe).
This G20 Summit in November 2024 will be significant, as a meeting where BRICS countries have enlarged since the last September 2023 G20 summit in India. Also, the G20 will also be significant in the sense that now the BRICS economies are more significant than they were a decade ago, and the most important growth in the global economy amongst major economies is India’s economic growth and leading growth amongst the G20 economies. International credit rating agency Moody’s is forecasting 7.2% GDP growth in 2024 in India.[4] The OECD’s Chief Economist Alvaro Pereira further forecasts similar high growth rates for India, FY25 at 6,7% and FY26 at 6,8%.[5]
However, in spite of this rapid growth lead by BRICS countries, the summit at the G20 is not expected to be a polarized confrontation of a consolidated BRICS, which would be adversarial to the G7 economies. Similar to the G20 summit in New Delhi, the Meeting in Brazil (Brazil is also another BRICS country, as is India), is not expected to be a summit dominated by anti-Western discussions. On the contrary, similar to the G20 Summit in India (to which the Russian and the Chinese Presidents didn’t attend), the current hosts Brazil, also enjoy relatively good relations with Western G7 States. While both Brazil and India are part of the BRICS group, they are not anti-Western, but rather promote reform in the international system in favor of the Global South and hence vaguely agree on balancing the G7 groups of states (the 7 largest western economies including USA, UK, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, and Japan). Yet like India, Brazil is also characterized as a state which gives importance to Democracy and balancing Western states and the Global South.
Besides the G7 and BRICS groups, there is another group within the G20 to which Turkiye is also party, that is MIKTA (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkiye, and Australia). Since the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia last month in October 2024, both Turkiye and Indonesia have been invited as partner countries to the BRICS group. However Indonesia is a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – ASEAN, while Turkiye is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – NATO, and consider furthering cooperation with BRICS mostly for economic reasons. Indeed, the BRICS foreign ministers also concurred that the G20 is still the main forum for discussing issues concerning international economic cooperation.[6]
The motto of the 2024 G20 Rio Summit is Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet.[7] This motto draws attention not only to a reform in the international system, but also to Climate Justice. The concept of reforming the international system would aim to create more balanced representation between Western developed countries and the developing Global South. From the Sustainable Planet and Just World statement, the notion of Climate Justice can also be derived. Climate Justice highlights the necessity of developed countries contributing funding and technical assistance to developing countries in supporting them to achieve sustainability. Indeed, Brazil’s priority would be reducing inequalities, as expressed in the Sherpas’ meeting of the G20; which is a theme that would be supported by the countries of the Global South such as India.[8] Under the Indian Presidency of the G20 in 2023, one of the important issues was also about inequalities, and India ensured that the Gender issues were not reduced to the sidelines.[9] Similar topics are expected to play an important role in the 2024 G20 Summit.
In conclusion, one has to see how the summit will unfold, but it would be difficult to reach a significant unanimity in Rio 2024 as in New Delhi 2023. The crises in Ukraine, Gazza, and Lebanon continue. The African Union’s inclusion (which required unanimity) has only recently been completed. The United States has an outgoing Democrat administration which lost the elections to Donald Trump and the Republican Party, and the world is still very polarized. India’s facilitation of the African Union permanently into the G20 can be interpreted as a prelude of what is more to come; in other words more instances of India’s leadership in the global arena, as a leading nation in the Global South with balanced relations with both Western Economies and with BRICS.[10] President Trump mentioned on numerous occasions that he is Pro-India and past good relations. In the current context of a transition between an outgoing American president and another Trump Presidency, which will begin only on 20th January 2025, it would be difficult for the United States to take significant decisions in the G20. India’s balancing role would be expected to continue over the, in parallel with its economic growth, and perhaps more evident in next year’s 2025 G20 Summit in South Africa (incidentally yet another BRICS country).[11]
[1] G20 Website: https://www.g20.org/en/
[2] India Got Everybody for Unanimous Adoption of G20 2023 Joint Declaration: https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/2763188-india-got-everybody-to-the-table-eam-jaishankar-on-unanimous-adoption-of-g20-declaration
[3] Economic Times: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/year-ender-2023-g20-stands-out-as-indias-diplomatic-achievement-of-year/articleshow/106258395.cms
[4] Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-15/moody-s-says-india-in-sweet-spot-predicts-2024-growth-of-7-2
[5] OECD Chief Economist Alvaro Pereira on India GDP growth – Economic Times: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/india-champion-of-growth-in-g20-lvaro-pereira-chief-economist-oecd/articleshow/113677700.cms?from=mdr
[6] The Print: https://theprint.in/world/brics-foreign-ministers-reaffirm-g20-as-premier-forum-for-international-economic-cooperation/2125836/
[7] Government of Brazil, G20 Rio: https://www.gov.br/trabalho-e-emprego/pt-br/assuntos/g20-brasil-2024/g20-english-version
[8] Development Discourse: https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/2877359-india-at-g20-sherpa-meeting-expresses-support-for-brazilian-presidencys-priority-of-reducing-inequalities
[9] Business Standard: https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/india-s-g20-presidency-ensured-gender-issue-not-reduced-to-sidelines-irani-124011700033_1.html#goog_rewarded
[10] Devdiscourse: https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/2786438-facilitation-of-african-union-into-g20-demonstrates-indias-leadership-in-world-arena-unga-president
[11] UN on South Africa’s G20 Presidency in 2025: https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/november-2024/south-africas-g20-presidency-2025-pivotal-moment-country-and-africa