Deconstructing Turkey’s Interest in BRICS+:
Global Dynamics, Domestic Interests, and Historical Legacy

Prof. Dr. Birgül Demirtaş*

Recent press reports and statements from Turkish policymakers indicate a growing interest of Turkey in BRICS+. Although it remains unclear whether Turkey has officially submitted a membership application, the Turkish ruling elite appear intent on securing a place for Turkey at the BRICS+ table in the foreseeable future. This analysis seeks to unpack Turkey’s increasing interest in BRICS+ through the lens of both global and domestic factors.

Turkey’s Quest for Strengthened Multilateralism

In recent decades, Turkish leadership has sought to consolidate a multidimensional foreign policy, emphasizing engagement with both the West and the East. A key milestone was the rise to power of Turgut Özal’s Motherland Party in 1983, when Özal prioritized improving ties with the USA and European nations while simultaneously fostering relationships with Middle Eastern countries. The end of the Cold War further shifted Turkey’s foreign relations as the 1990s saw Ankara positioning itself as a potential role model for the newly independent Turkic states.

The ascension of the Justice and Development Party (JDP) marked another landmark in Turkey’s quest for multidimensional diplomacy. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, under the banner of “National Foreign Policy in the ‘Century of Turkey’”, notes:

“Turkey aims to deepen and expand its foreign relations through new cooperation mechanisms and policies, balancing its role as the easternmost European and the westernmost Asian nation.”[1]

This statement encapsulates the recurring discourse in Turkish foreign policy: maintaining strong ties with traditional Western allies such as the USA and EU, while simultaneously seeking closer connections with regions as diverse as Latin America, Africa, the Balkans, and Asia.[2]

To understand Turkey’s push to establish ties in new regions, particularly its bid to join BRICS+, one must first consider external factors, followed by an examination of internal dynamics.

The Rise of the East and the Decline of the West in the Global Economy

BRICS, while not a formal international organization akin to the EU, NATO, or ASEAN, is a loose alliance of rising powers—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—formed in 2010. The bloc’s primary aim is to increase the influence of its members within the global economic system. BRICS has established key institutions, such as the New Development Bank and the Contingent Reserve Agency, to enhance economic cooperation among its members. In 2024, the BRICS expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, creating BRICS+.

The BRICS+ nations now account for 37% of the global economy, compared to the EU’s share of around 14.5%.[3] The BRICS+ bloc’s share is more than double that of the EU and even surpasses the G7’s 32% share.[4] This shift signifies a broader trend: while the economic weight of the BRICS+ countries continues to rise, the influence of Western nations, particularly the US and EU, has been steadily declining.[5]

Within this context, China plays a pivotal role, often dubbed the “super-BRICS” state. In 1980, China’s share of the global economy was just 2%, while the US and EU held 21% and 26%, respectively. By 2024, China’s share skyrocketed to 19%, while the share of the US declined to 15.5% and the EU to 14%.[6]

This shift in global economic power influences regional actors like Turkey, prompting them to adapt to changing dynamics by strengthening ties with rising powers, including the BRICS+ bloc.

Changing Domestic Dynamics in Turkey

The changing external dynamics has been accompanied by changes in Turkish internal dynamics. From its inception, the JDP has emphasized multidimensionality and the coexistence of multiple identities in its foreign policy. Turkish officials frequently stress that the country is simultaneously part of Asia, Europe, the Balkans, the Black Sea, and the Mediterranean. The JDP has expanded Turkey’s outreach to Africa and Latin America, reflecting its desire to increase engagement beyond traditional Western alliances. Additionally, Turkey has sought stronger ties with regional organizations, becoming a sectoral dialogue partner of ASEAN, a dialogue partner of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and a strategic partner of the African Union. These efforts underscore Turkey’s intent to diversify its global partnerships.

Challenges in Turkish-Western Relations

Between 1999 and 2006, Turkey undertook significant Europeanization reforms that led to substantial societal transformations. However, both Ankara and Brussels share responsibility for the stagnation of Turkey’s EU accession process since 2006. Despite the 2016 migration deal that reduced the flow of refugees from Turkey to EU states, progress on modernizing the customs union and achieving visa liberalization for Turkish citizens has stalled. The reduction of EU-Turkey relations to a Realpolitik framework, devoid of normative depth, has contributed to new tensions.

Turkish-American relations have also encountered significant challenges in recent years. Disputes such as the Brunson affair and disagreements over the F-35 fighter program have strained ties. Additionally, serious divergences remain regarding Northern Syria, further complicating bilateral relations.

A Historical Perspective on Turkey’s Multilateralism

Turkey’s engagement with multilateralism has deep roots, extending back to the early years of the Republic. Even in its infancy, Turkey sought to strengthen ties with both Western and Eastern nations. The formation of the Balkan Pact in 1934 and the Sadabad Pact in 1937 exemplify Turkey’s early efforts to foster regional cooperation. With the exception of the period between 1950 and 1962, Turkey’s foreign policymakers have consistently pursued a multilateral approach to diplomacy.

Conclusion

Turkey’s increasing interest in BRICS+ reflects both external and internal factors. The growing influence of Eastern powers in the global economy, coupled with their efforts to play a more significant role in global governance, has shaped Turkey’s global strategy. Domestically, the JDP’s emphasis on multiple identities and multidimensional diplomacy has provided further impetus. Moreover, Turkey’s strained relations with its Western partners—marked by divergences in security perceptions and a diminished normative framework—have prompted Ankara to seek alternative alliances.

In summary, Turkey’s pursuit of a seat at the BRICS+ table reflects the ongoing transformation in both global and domestic spheres over the past few decades. In these shifting times, a critical question arises: what serves as the anchor of Turkey’s “new” foreign policy, or does it, in fact, have any clear anchor?

* Visiting Professor, Cologne Center for Comparative Politics, University of Cologne.

[1] “ ‘Türkiye Yüzyılı’nda Milli Dış Politika”, Turkish Foreign Ministry, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/dis-politika-genel.tr.mfa

[2] Ibid.

[3] “Expansion of BRICS: A Quest for Greater Global Influence”, European Parliament, 2024. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2024/760368/EPRS_BRI(2024)760368_EN.pdf

[4] Banque de France, “Expansion of BRICS: What are the Potential Consequences for the Global Economy”, February 13, 2024. https://www.banque-france.fr/en/publications-and-statistics/publications/expansion-brics-what-are-potential-consequences-global-economy#:~:text=The%20gap%20between%20BRICS%2B%20and,with%2028.2%25%20for%20the%20G7.

[5] For a compehensive analysis of BRICS in globale economy see Ziya Öniş and Mustafa Kutlay, “The new age of hybridity and clash of norms: China, BRICS and challenges of global governance in a postliberal international order”, Alternatives, 2020, Vol. 45, No 3, p. 123-142.

[6] “GDP based on PPP, share of world”, https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/EU/CHN/USA.